Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Jeffery vs Brad Tavares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record21-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Niagara Top TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron JefferyNow 1694
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1654 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.41
TBD
Strike accuracy
44%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.32
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.70
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
80%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron JefferyBrad Tavares
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
1 (6%)
Submission
2 (10%)
6 (38%)
Decision
14 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Jeffery52%
Brad Tavares 48%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Jeffery a 52% favorite over Brad Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brad Tavares's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1698), separated by just 4 points.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Jeffery finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Brad Tavares 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.