Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Jeffery vs Michel Pereira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record32-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
74"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Niagara Top TeamTeamOvercome Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron JefferyNow 1694
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Michel PereiraNow 1692
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.46
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.21
TBD
Takedown accuracy
57%
TBD
Takedown defense
76%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Aaron JefferyMichel Pereira
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
11 (34%)
1 (6%)
Submission
9 (28%)
6 (38%)
Decision
12 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Michel Pereira60%
Aaron Jeffery 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michel Pereira a 60% favorite over Aaron Jeffery in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Jeffery's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1692), separated by just 2 points.

Aaron Jeffery finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Michel Pereira 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.