Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Lanfranco vs Nonato Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'7"
TBDReach-
158 lbsWeight161 lbs
TBDTeamGameness Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron LanfrancoNow 1521
If they win+24→ 1545
If they lose-24→ 1497
Nonato JuniorNow 1525
If they win+12→ 1537
If they lose-12→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1443 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aaron LanfrancoNonato Junior
1500155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
2 (40%)
Submission
16 (84%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Nonato Junior60%
Aaron Lanfranco 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nonato Junior a 60% favorite over Aaron Lanfranco in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1525), separated by just 4 points.

Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aaron Lanfranco finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Nonato Junior 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.