Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Dileno Lopes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record21-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
TBDReach65.00
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamNova Uniao Manaus

What's at stake

Aaron Phillips is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Dileno Lopes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+14→ 1516
If they lose-18→ 1484
Dileno LopesNow 1469
If they win+26→ 1495
If they lose-22→ 1447

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
2.37
53%
Strike accuracy
36%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
44%
Strike defense
54%
0.86
Takedown avg.
2.50
50%
Takedown accuracy
31%
44%
Takedown defense
100%
0.57
Submission avg.
1.50

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsDileno Lopes
145015001550202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
2 (17%)
Submission
15 (71%)
4 (33%)
Decision
2 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Phillips52%
Dileno Lopes 48%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Phillips a 52% favorite over Dileno Lopes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Aaron Phillips holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1502 to 1469, a 33-point edge.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Dileno Lopes 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.