Aaron Phillips vs Ryan Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record13-14-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Aaron Phillips is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryan Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1517
If they lose-17→ 1485
If they win+13→ 1483
If they lose-11→ 1459
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsRyan Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Phillips61%
Ryan Diaz 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Phillips a 61% favorite over Ryan Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Aaron Phillips holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1502 to 1470, a 32-point edge.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Ryan Diaz enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Diaz 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.