Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Shunichi Shimizu

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record35-28-10
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamPolar Gym Osaka

What's at stake

Aaron Phillips is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Shunichi Shimizu carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+15→ 1517
If they lose-17→ 1485
Shunichi ShimizuNow 1474
If they win+13→ 1487
If they lose-11→ 1463

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
0.14
53%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
44%
Strike defense
31%
0.86
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsShunichi Shimizu
150015502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (12%)
2 (17%)
Submission
19 (56%)
4 (33%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Phillips60%
Shunichi Shimizu 40%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Phillips a 60% favorite over Shunichi Shimizu in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Aaron Phillips holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1502 to 1474, a 28-point edge.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Shunichi Shimizu 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.