Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Pico vs Darren Elkins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record29-12-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamDuneland Vale Tudo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron PicoNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Darren ElkinsNow 1699
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-12→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.16
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
54%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.22
45%
Strike defense
52%
6.54
Takedown avg.
2.86
50%
Takedown accuracy
35%
0%
Takedown defense
56%
0
Submission avg.
1.08

Trajectory

Aaron PicoDarren Elkins
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
9 (31%)
2 (14%)
Submission
6 (21%)
3 (21%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Pico71%
Darren Elkins 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Pico a 71% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1699), separated by just 0 points.

Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.