Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Pico vs Wagnney Fabiano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record16-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight146 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron PicoNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Wagnney FabianoNow 1699
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.16
Sig. strikes / min
1.19
54%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.66
45%
Strike defense
70%
6.54
Takedown avg.
3.44
50%
Takedown accuracy
64%
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Aaron PicoWagnney Fabiano
1650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
2 (14%)
Submission
9 (56%)
3 (21%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Pico70%
Wagnney Fabiano 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Pico a 70% favorite over Wagnney Fabiano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1699), separated by just 0 points.

Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Wagnney Fabiano 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.