Aaron Riley vs Brandon Jenkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-1Record18-12-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1560
If they lose-12→ 1536
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RileyBrandon Jenkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Jenkins62%
Aaron Riley 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Jenkins a 62% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1549), separated by just 1 points.
Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Brandon Jenkins 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.