Aaron Riley vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-14-1Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1560
If they lose-12→ 1536
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron RileyJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jeremy Stephens60%
Aaron Riley 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 60% favorite over Aaron Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1548 vs 1551), separated by just 3 points.
Aaron Riley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Riley finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.