Abel Trujillo vs Angel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record11-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70,0"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BlackziliansTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Abel TrujilloAngel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Angel Alvarez66%
Abel Trujillo 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 66% favorite over Abel Trujillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Abel Trujillo's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1615 vs 1610), separated by just 5 points.
Abel Trujillo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Abel Trujillo finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Angel Alvarez 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.