Combat Edge Intelligence

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jeremiah Wells

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-4-1Record13-4-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Philly

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Abubakar NurmagomedovNow 1688
If they win+16→ 1704
If they lose-16→ 1672
Jeremiah WellsNow 1688
If they win+16→ 1704
If they lose-16→ 1672

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
53%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.28
65%
Strike defense
48%
1.25
Takedown avg.
3.06
22%
Takedown accuracy
3%
89%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Abubakar NurmagomedovJeremiah Wells
17002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
5 (38%)
4 (24%)
Submission
4 (31%)
7 (41%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Abubakar Nurmagomedov53%
Jeremiah Wells 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Abubakar Nurmagomedov a 53% favorite over Jeremiah Wells in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1688 vs 1688), separated by just 0 points.

Abubakar Nurmagomedov finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jeremiah Wells 69%.

Jeremiah Wells carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.