Combat Edge Intelligence

Adam Fugitt vs Chris Heatherly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record9-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'8"
77"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight180 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamFit or Fight

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adam FugittNow 1608
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Chris HeatherlyNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.59
Sig. strikes / min
1.68
46%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.54
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.27
51%
Strike defense
52%
1.83
Takedown avg.
4.21
25%
Takedown accuracy
50%
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Adam FugittChris Heatherly
160016502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
3 (30%)
Submission
4 (44%)
2 (20%)
Decision
4 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Adam Fugitt54%
Chris Heatherly 46%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Adam Fugitt a 54% favorite over Chris Heatherly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1604), separated by just 4 points.

Adam Fugitt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Adam Fugitt finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Chris Heatherly 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.