Adam Fugitt vs Matt Serra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record11-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'6"
77"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adam FugittMatt Serra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adam Fugitt60%
Matt Serra 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Adam Fugitt a 60% favorite over Matt Serra in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1605), separated by just 3 points.
Adam Fugitt enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Adam Fugitt finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matt Serra 64%.
Adam Fugitt carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.