Combat Edge Intelligence

Adriano Moraes vs Colby Thicknesse

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-0Record9-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Constrictor TeamTeamFreestyle Fighting Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adriano MoraesNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651
Colby ThicknesseNow 1667
If they win+16→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1602 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1
TBD
Takedown accuracy
9%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Adriano MoraesColby Thicknesse
16001650170020252026

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
13 (57%)
Submission
2 (22%)
6 (26%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

Colby Thicknesse61%
Adriano Moraes 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Colby Thicknesse a 61% favorite over Adriano Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Adriano Moraes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1667), separated by just 0 points.

Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Adriano Moraes finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Colby Thicknesse 44%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.