Ahmed Darwish vs Alex Karalexis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record10-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Sityodtong
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1522
If they lose-23→ 1474
If they win+23→ 1529
If they lose-25→ 1481
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed DarwishAlex Karalexis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Darwish60%
Alex Karalexis 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Darwish a 60% favorite over Alex Karalexis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Karalexis's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1497 vs 1506), separated by just 9 points.
Ahmed Darwish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ahmed Darwish finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Alex Karalexis 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.