Ahmed Tarek vs Joao Roque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-1-0Record7-2-4
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
74"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
S&B AcademyTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1635
If they lose-24→ 1587
If they win+16→ 1627
If they lose-16→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed TarekJoao Roque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Tarek70%
Joao Roque 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Tarek a 70% favorite over Joao Roque in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1611), separated by just 0 points.
Ahmed Tarek enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ahmed Tarek finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Joao Roque 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.