Ahmed Tarek vs Justin Jaynes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record17-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
74"Reach68"
145 lbsWeight159 lbs
S&B AcademyTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1584
If they lose-25→ 1536
If they win+12→ 1565
If they lose-12→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed TarekJustin Jaynes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Tarek75%
Justin Jaynes 25%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Tarek a 75% favorite over Justin Jaynes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1553), separated by just 8 points.
Ahmed Tarek enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ahmed Tarek finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Justin Jaynes 88%.
Ahmed Tarek carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.