Combat Edge Intelligence

AJ Dobson vs Andrew Sanchez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record14-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
76"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Strong Style Fight TeamTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

AJ DobsonNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
Andrew SanchezNow 1593
If they win+16→ 1609
If they lose-16→ 1577

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
4.30
46%
Strike accuracy
44%
5.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.10
46%
Strike defense
51%
1.67
Takedown avg.
2.55
75%
Takedown accuracy
37%
65%
Takedown defense
100%
0.28
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

AJ DobsonAndrew Sanchez
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
2 (29%)
Submission
2 (14%)
2 (29%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

AJ Dobson66%
Andrew Sanchez 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes AJ Dobson a 66% favorite over Andrew Sanchez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1593), separated by just 5 points.

Andrew Sanchez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

AJ Dobson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Andrew Sanchez 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.