Combat Edge Intelligence

AJ McKee Jr. vs Lerone Murphy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-2-0Record17-1-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team BodyshopTeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

AJ McKee Jr. is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lerone Murphy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

AJ McKee Jr.Now 1839
If they win+10→ 1849
If they lose-14→ 1825
Lerone MurphyNow 1791
If they win+18→ 1809
If they lose-14→ 1777

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1702 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.48
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
54%
TBD
Takedown defense
51%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

AJ McKee Jr.Lerone Murphy
175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
8 (47%)
8 (32%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (44%)
Decision
9 (53%)

Combat Edge model read

AJ McKee Jr.67%
Lerone Murphy 33%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes AJ McKee Jr. a 67% favorite over Lerone Murphy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

AJ McKee Jr. holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1839 to 1791, a 48-point edge.

AJ McKee Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.

AJ McKee Jr. finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.