Combat Edge Intelligence

Al Iaquinta vs Dakota Bush

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-7-1Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamThe Smith Pit

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Al IaquintaNow 1659
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Dakota BushNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
41%
Strike accuracy
39%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.42
61%
Strike defense
42%
0.63
Takedown avg.
2.40
19%
Takedown accuracy
33%
74%
Takedown defense
0%
0.24
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Al IaquintaDakota Bush
1600165017001750201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
1 (7%)
Submission
6 (43%)
6 (43%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Dakota Bush56%
Al Iaquinta 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Bush a 56% favorite over Al Iaquinta in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Al Iaquinta's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1659 vs 1658), separated by just 1 points.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Dakota Bush enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Al Iaquinta finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Dakota Bush 57%.

Dakota Bush carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.