Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Belcher vs Nikolay Aleksakhin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-9-0Record26-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
233 lbsWeight172 lbs
RoufusportTeamAlexander Nevsky (Stary Oskol)

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alan BelcherNow 1685
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
Nikolay AleksakhinNow 1688
If they win+12→ 1700
If they lose-12→ 1676

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
0.44
Takedown avg.
TBD
27%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
55%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.87
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alan BelcherNikolay Aleksakhin
170017502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (58%)
KO/TKO
14 (54%)
5 (26%)
Submission
2 (8%)
3 (16%)
Decision
10 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Nikolay Aleksakhin70%
Alan Belcher 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nikolay Aleksakhin a 70% favorite over Alan Belcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1688), separated by just 3 points.

Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Nikolay Aleksakhin 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.