Alan Jouban vs Jefferson Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-0Record13-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'7"
73.50Reach71"
170 lbsWeight154 lbs
Black HouseTeamRenovacao Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan JoubanJefferson Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jefferson Nascimento60%
Alan Jouban 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jefferson Nascimento a 60% favorite over Alan Jouban in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1674), separated by just 4 points.
Jefferson Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Jouban finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Jefferson Nascimento 62%.
Alan Jouban carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.