Alan Silva vs Gary Padilla
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-14-1Record12-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team AbacaxiTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1554
If they lose-12→ 1530
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan SilvaGary Padilla
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Silva59%
Gary Padilla 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Silva a 59% favorite over Gary Padilla in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gary Padilla's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1542 vs 1549), separated by just 7 points.
Alan Silva enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gary Padilla enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Silva finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Gary Padilla 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.