Combat Edge Intelligence

Albert Morales vs Mitch Gagnon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-9-1Record12-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
39,0"Reach65,5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Systems Training CenterTeamTroop MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Albert MoralesNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.81
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
36%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
56%
Strike defense
62%
0.91
Takedown avg.
1.16
36%
Takedown accuracy
25%
71%
Takedown defense
66%
0.18
Submission avg.
1.93

Trajectory

Albert MoralesMitch Gagnon
15501600165020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (47%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
5 (33%)
Submission
10 (83%)
3 (20%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Mitch Gagnon51%
Albert Morales 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Gagnon a 51% favorite over Albert Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1631), separated by just 1 points.

Albert Morales enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Albert Morales finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Gagnon 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.