Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandr Grozin vs Josh Thomson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-7-2Record22-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
147 lbsWeight153 lbs
Raty TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksandr GrozinNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Josh ThomsonNow 1684
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.12
TBD
Strike defense
64%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.92
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
TBD
Takedown defense
55%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Aleksandr GrozinJosh Thomson
1700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
3 (12%)
Submission
9 (41%)
16 (64%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandr Grozin66%
Josh Thomson 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandr Grozin a 66% favorite over Josh Thomson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Thomson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1684), separated by just 1 points.

Aleksandr Grozin finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Josh Thomson 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.