Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandr Grozin vs Vagner Rocha

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-7-2Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
147 lbsWeight155 lbs
Raty TeamTeamTeam VRMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksandr GrozinNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Vagner RochaNow 1684
If they win+16→ 1700
If they lose-16→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.40
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Aleksandr GrozinVagner Rocha
16501700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (24%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
3 (12%)
Submission
8 (57%)
16 (64%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandr Grozin60%
Vagner Rocha 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandr Grozin a 60% favorite over Vagner Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Vagner Rocha's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1684), separated by just 1 points.

Vagner Rocha enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Aleksandr Grozin finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Vagner Rocha 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.