Combat Edge Intelligence

Aleksandre Topuria vs Pedro Falcão

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-1-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
68"Reach66"
139 lbsWeight135 lbs
Climent ClubTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aleksandre TopuriaNow 1613
If they win+24→ 1637
If they lose-24→ 1589
Pedro FalcãoNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1544 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.73
Sig. strikes / min
2.90
52%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.63
70%
Strike defense
48%
1
Takedown avg.
2.07
50%
Takedown accuracy
22%
100%
Takedown defense
83%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aleksandre TopuriaPedro Falcão
15501600165020242025

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
2 (29%)
Submission
5 (31%)
2 (29%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Aleksandre Topuria62%
Pedro Falcão 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aleksandre Topuria a 62% favorite over Pedro Falcão in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pedro Falcão's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1614), separated by just 1 points.

Aleksandre Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Pedro Falcão enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Aleksandre Topuria finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Falcão 69%.

Aleksandre Topuria carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.