Combat Edge Intelligence

Alessandro Costa vs Evan Dunham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record18-9-1
FlyweightDivisionLightweight
5'5"Height5'10"
67"Reach70,0"
125 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alessandro CostaNow 1689
If they win+15→ 1704
If they lose-17→ 1672
Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
5.33
47%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.54
57%
Strike defense
62%
0.77
Takedown avg.
1.82
0%
Takedown accuracy
33%
86%
Takedown defense
80%
0.38
Submission avg.
0.98

Trajectory

Alessandro CostaEvan Dunham
16501700201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
3 (17%)
6 (38%)
Submission
6 (33%)
3 (19%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Alessandro Costa72%
Evan Dunham 28%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 72% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1670, a 19-point edge.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Evan Dunham 50%.

Evan Dunham carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.