Alessandro Costa vs John Castañeda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record21-8-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach71"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamThe Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1705
If they lose-16→ 1673
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaJohn Castañeda
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa59%
John Castañeda 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 59% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans John Castañeda's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1689 vs 1696), separated by just 7 points.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.
John Castañeda carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.