Alessandro Costa vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record30-12-2
FlyweightDivisionLightweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nik Lentz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1704
If they lose-17→ 1672
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa72%
Nik Lentz 28%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 72% favorite over Nik Lentz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1670, a 19-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.