Alessandro Ricci vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
69.00Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
M-1 Thai BoxingTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Alessandro Ricci is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Luan Duarte carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1497
If they lose-25→ 1449
If they win+17→ 1476
If they lose-15→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro RicciLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte67%
Alessandro Ricci 33%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 67% favorite over Alessandro Ricci in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alessandro Ricci's way (48%).
Alessandro Ricci holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1474 to 1459, a 15-point edge.
Alessandro Ricci enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alessandro Ricci finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.