Alex da Silva vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-5-0Record28-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach72,5"
159 lbsWeight159 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
If they win+12→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex da SilvaJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex da Silva66%
Johnny Case 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex da Silva a 66% favorite over Johnny Case in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Johnny Case's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1663 vs 1664), separated by just 1 points.
Alex da Silva finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.