Alex Garcia vs Alex Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record25-16-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72,0"Reach 76"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tristar GymTeamATS Team Tres Rios
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
If they win+12→ 1622
If they lose-12→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaAlex Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Garcia and Alex Oliveira within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1610), separated by just 3 points.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Alex Oliveira 80%.
Alex Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.