Alex Garcia vs Ashley Reece
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record10-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72,0"Reach69"
171 lbsWeight168 lbs
Tristar GymTeamHAMMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex GarciaAshley Reece
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Reece63%
Alex Garcia 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Reece a 63% favorite over Alex Garcia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Garcia's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.
Alex Garcia enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Garcia finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Ashley Reece 50%.
Alex Garcia carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.