Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Gilpin vs Mads Burnell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record19-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach68.00"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chosen Few GymTeamArte Suave Copenhagen

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex GilpinNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Mads BurnellNow 1667
If they win+12→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.80
Sig. strikes / min
1.28
54%
Strike accuracy
42%
12.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.71
43%
Strike defense
51%
2.17
Takedown avg.
3.45
25%
Takedown accuracy
47%
0%
Takedown defense
22%
2.17
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Alex GilpinMads Burnell
16501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
9 (60%)
Submission
9 (47%)
3 (20%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Gilpin and Mads Burnell within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1667), separated by just 2 points.

Alex Gilpin finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mads Burnell 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.