Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Gorgees vs Kēstin McClain

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-1-0Record5-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'10"
TBDReach-
154 lbsWeight147 lbs
Australian Top TeamTeamRoughhouse Boxing

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex GorgeesNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599
Kēstin McClainNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.67
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
32%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
38%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
55%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alex GorgeesKēstin McClain
1550160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
2 (33%)
Submission
1 (20%)
1 (17%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Kēstin McClain63%
Alex Gorgees 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 63% favorite over Alex Gorgees in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Gorgees's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1623 vs 1623), separated by just 0 points.

Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Alex Gorgees finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Kēstin McClain 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.