Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Nicholson vs Jason Miller

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-11-0Record23-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
81,0"ReachTBD
224 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team OrlandoTeamTeam Mayhem

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex NicholsonNow 1630
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
Jason MillerNow 1627
If they win+12→ 1639
If they lose-12→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.12
Sig. strikes / min
1.45
44%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.51
47%
Strike defense
49%
0
Takedown avg.
1.02
TBD
Takedown accuracy
17%
50%
Takedown defense
44%
0.53
Submission avg.
1.28

Trajectory

Alex NicholsonJason Miller
1600165020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

17 (89%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
2 (11%)
Submission
14 (61%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Alex Nicholson57%
Jason Miller 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alex Nicholson a 57% favorite over Jason Miller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1627), separated by just 3 points.

Alex Nicholson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Jason Miller enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Nicholson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jason Miller 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.