Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Dominique Steele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record20-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
76"Reach74,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamTeam Vision

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex OliveiraNow 1610
If they win+12→ 1622
If they lose-12→ 1598
Dominique SteeleNow 1609
If they win+12→ 1621
If they lose-12→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
2.32
51%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
47%
Strike defense
50%
2.35
Takedown avg.
2.95
38%
Takedown accuracy
42%
64%
Takedown defense
76%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraDominique Steele
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
7 (35%)
5 (20%)
Submission
2 (10%)
5 (20%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alex Oliveira and Dominique Steele within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dominique Steele enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Dominique Steele 45%.

Alex Oliveira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.