Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Jon Manley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record13-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamTeam Link

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex OliveiraNow 1596
If they win+12→ 1608
If they lose-12→ 1584
Jon ManleyNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
1.13
51%
Strike accuracy
20%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
47%
Strike defense
46%
2.35
Takedown avg.
1
38%
Takedown accuracy
8%
64%
Takedown defense
20%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraJon Manley
15501600165020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (20%)
Submission
6 (46%)
5 (20%)
Decision
7 (54%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Manley52%
Alex Oliveira 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Manley a 52% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1597), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jon Manley enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Jon Manley 46%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.