Alex Oliveira vs Mats Nilsson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-16-1Record11-4-1
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
76"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1622
If they lose-12→ 1598
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex OliveiraMats Nilsson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mats Nilsson53%
Alex Oliveira 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mats Nilsson a 53% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1612), separated by just 2 points.
Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mats Nilsson 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.