Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Oliveira vs Ryan LaFlare

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

25-16-1Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
76"Reach42,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
ATS Team Tres RiosTeamLong Island MMA

What's at stake

Ryan LaFlare is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alex Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alex OliveiraNow 1595
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-8→ 1587
Ryan LaFlareNow 1721
If they win+10→ 1731
If they lose-22→ 1699

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1613 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
2.89
51%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.86
47%
Strike defense
63%
2.35
Takedown avg.
2.13
38%
Takedown accuracy
45%
64%
Takedown defense
59%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Alex OliveiraRyan LaFlare
16001650170017502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
5 (20%)
Submission
3 (21%)
5 (20%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan LaFlare75%
Alex Oliveira 25%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan LaFlare a 75% favorite over Alex Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Ryan LaFlare holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1595, a 126-point edge.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alex Oliveira finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Ryan LaFlare 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.