Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Reyes vs Mike Breeden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Cage Combat AcademyTeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ReyesNow 1607
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
Mike BreedenNow 1604
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.46
Sig. strikes / min
5.75
47%
Strike accuracy
45%
6.92
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.28
48%
Strike defense
43%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0.98
29%
Takedown accuracy
30%
0%
Takedown defense
68%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alex ReyesMike Breeden
160016502021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
4 (31%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Breeden60%
Alex Reyes 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Breeden a 60% favorite over Alex Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Reyes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1604), separated by just 3 points.

Alex Reyes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alex Reyes finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mike Breeden 82%.

Alex Reyes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.