Combat Edge Intelligence

Alex Reyes vs Will Kerr

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record9-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cage Combat AcademyTeamStrike Zone MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alex ReyesNow 1607
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
Will KerrNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.46
Sig. strikes / min
1.91
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
6.92
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.22
48%
Strike defense
33%
1.50
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
14.34

Trajectory

Alex ReyesWill Kerr
160016502009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
4 (31%)
Submission
4 (44%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Will Kerr52%
Alex Reyes 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Will Kerr a 52% favorite over Alex Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alex Reyes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.

Alex Reyes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alex Reyes finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Will Kerr 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.