Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander O'Sullivan vs Tommy Hayden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record11-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
C-MACTeamBangkok Fight Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander O'SullivanNow 1580
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
Tommy HaydenNow 1580
If they win+16→ 1596
If they lose-16→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.48
TBD
Strike accuracy
27%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.05
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.42
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander O'SullivanTommy Hayden
155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
2 (40%)
Submission
6 (60%)
2 (40%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander O'Sullivan53%
Tommy Hayden 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander O'Sullivan a 53% favorite over Tommy Hayden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1580), separated by just 0 points.

Alexander O'Sullivan finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Hayden 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.