Alexander Treskin vs Ryan Thomas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record20-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
157 lbsWeight170 lbs
Raty TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
If they win+12→ 1641
If they lose-12→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander TreskinRyan Thomas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Treskin70%
Ryan Thomas 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Treskin a 70% favorite over Ryan Thomas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Thomas's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1629), separated by just 1 points.
Alexander Treskin enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ryan Thomas enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Treskin finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Thomas 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.