Alexandre Pantoja vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-6-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1814
If they lose-18→ 1790
If they win+18→ 1624
If they lose-6→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja87%
Matt Schnell 13%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 87% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1808 to 1606, a 202-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Matt Schnell share 2 common opponents: Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval.
Matt Schnell carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.