Alexey Shurkevich vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-6-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
73"Reach76,0"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Storm Shlemenko Fight TeamTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexey ShurkevichRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexey Shurkevich71%
Rafael Natal 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexey Shurkevich a 71% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1673), separated by just 0 points.
Alexey Shurkevich enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alexey Shurkevich finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Rafael Natal carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.