Alfie Davis vs Magomed Mustafaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-1Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
London ShootfightersTeamFight Club Akhmat
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1710
If they lose-12→ 1686
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alfie DavisMagomed Mustafaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alfie Davis63%
Magomed Mustafaev 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alfie Davis a 63% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Magomed Mustafaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1698 vs 1699), separated by just 1 points.
Alfie Davis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alfie Davis finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.