Combat Edge Intelligence

Aliev Makhmud vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'8"Height-
TBDReach-
191 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

Aliev Makhmud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Matthew O'Rourke carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aliev MakhmudNow 1486
If they win+23→ 1509
If they lose-25→ 1461
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

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Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke60%
Aliev Makhmud 40%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 60% favorite over Aliev Makhmud in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aliev Makhmud's way (48%).

Aliev Makhmud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1486 to 1471, a 15-point edge.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.